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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 34-R.McCloud to ATL 21 for no gain (29-A.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model