Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(12:32) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ATL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 34-R.McCloud to ATL 14 for no gain (81-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model