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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Monday 2025-09-22 · 20:15 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

DET
37.3%
BAL
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.244 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.308 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.331 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
BAL 28
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DET

Marcus Davenport DE Out Chest
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
D.J. Reed CB Questionable Knee
Kerby Joseph S Questionable Knee
Jack Campbell LB Questionable Ankle

BAL

Kyle Van Noy LB Out Hamstring
Patrick Ricard FB Out Calf
Nnamdi Madubuike DT Out Neck
Isaiah Likely TE Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 38
–
BAL 30

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:19 TD DET (9:19) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 05:47 TD BAL (5:47) 22-D.Henry right guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-P.O'Connor, Defensive Offside, declined. DET 7 – BAL 6
  • Q2 05:57 TD DET (5:57) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – BAL 7
  • Q2 00:27 TD BAL (:27) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – BAL 13
  • Q3 08:55 TD BAL (8:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – BAL 20
  • Q3 05:18 TD DET (5:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – BAL 21
  • Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – BAL 21
  • Q4 09:44 FG BAL (9:44) 33-T.Loop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. DET 28 – BAL 24
  • Q4 06:39 FG DET (6:39) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 31 – BAL 24
  • Q4 01:50 TD DET (1:50) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 37 – BAL 24
  • Q4 00:35 TD BAL (:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 38 – BAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

    (10:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 4 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:27) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to BAL 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 27 for 11 yards (33-S.Vaki).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:55) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to DET 3, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-K.Raymond to DET 7 for 4 yards (27-T.Tampa). PENALTY on DET-4-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at DET 9 for -7 yards (46-J.Campbell). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), touched at DET 11, and recovers at DET 20.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:05) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to BAL 31, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 41 for 10 yards (30-K.Dorsey). PENALTY on DET-15-G.Stuard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 41.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to DET 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 89%

    (9:44) 33-T.Loop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:42) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 10 yards (2-D.Thomas; 23-R.Ya-Sin).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:32) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to DET 30, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 29%

    (1:56) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 31 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, declined.