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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to DET 3, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-K.Raymond to DET 7 for 4 yards (27-T.Tampa). PENALTY on DET-4-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP