Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Detroit Lions 21

(3:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to DET 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model