Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 69

Detroit Lions 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(3:27) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to BAL 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 27 for 11 yards (33-S.Vaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model