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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 11

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 4 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.25 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model