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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 4
Detroit Lions 21 – Baltimore Ravens 21
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.11 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth -0.01 EP
KICK
+1.34 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
