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New England Patriots

12-3 HC Mike Vrabel
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Baltimore Ravens

7-8 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 20:20 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NE
50.4%
BAL
49.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.260 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 24 17–31
–
BAL 23 16–30
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

NE

Robert Spillane LB Out Ankle
Carlton Davis III CB Questionable Hip
Harold Landry III LB Questionable Knee
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Marcus Jones CB Questionable Knee

BAL

Teddye Buchanan LB Out Knee
Jay Higgins LB Out Knee
Chidobe Awuzie CB Doubtful Foot
John Jenkins DT Questionable Illness
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Knee
Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 28
–
BAL 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:26 TD BAL (12:26) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 11:22 TD NE (11:22) 77-B.Brown and 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BAL 7
  • Q2 05:44 FG NE (5:44) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – BAL 7
  • Q2 01:07 FG BAL (1:07) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. NE 10 – BAL 10
  • Q3 07:47 FG NE (7:47) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 13 – BAL 10
  • Q3 04:43 TD BAL (4:43) 4-Z.Flowers right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BAL 16
  • Q4 12:53 TD BAL (12:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BAL 23
  • Q4 09:07 TD NE (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – BAL 24
  • Q4 02:15 TD NE (2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (8:41) 95-K.Tonga and 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye right guard to BAL 15 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:32) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to NE 25, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (5:44) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (1:07) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-L.Wester to BAL 33 for 11 yards (47-J.Ashby).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 65%

    (10:43) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%

    (7:47) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:01) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 15-M.Mapu. 15-M.Mapu sacked at NE 43 for -1 yards (81-D.Walker). FUMBLES (81-D.Walker) [81-D.Walker], touched at NE 45, recovered by NE-51-J.Gibbens at NE 44.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:12) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to NE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 40%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).

    See the full breakdown →