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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 27

New England Patriots 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model