Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 71

New England Patriots 10 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(14:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-L.Wester to BAL 33 for 11 yards (47-J.Ashby).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model