4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 48

New England Patriots 21 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.23 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model