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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 17

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 95-K.Tonga and 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye right guard to BAL 15 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model