Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New England Patriots 7

(10:32) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to NE 25, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.67 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model