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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model