4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:25 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

LV
15.9%
HOU
84.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.265 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.117 vs Geno Smith (LV) -0.207 EPA/dropback (LV starting Geno Smith in place of Kenny Pickett)
  • HOU defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 17
–
HOU 28
Projected margin: HOU by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LV

Kolton Miller T Out Ankle
Jordan Meredith C Questionable Ankle

HOU

Justin Watson WR Questionable Calf
Christian Kirk WR Questionable Illness
Nick Chubb RB Questionable Ribs
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Questionable Ankle
Darrell Taylor DE Questionable Ankle
Derek Stingley Jr. CB Questionable Oblique
Woody Marks RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 21
–
HOU 23

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 TD HOU (10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 12:30 TD LV (12:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – HOU 7
  • Q2 09:17 FG HOU (9:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. LV 7 – HOU 10
  • Q2 00:54 FG HOU (:54) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. LV 7 – HOU 13
  • Q3 09:53 TD LV (9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – HOU 13
  • Q3 03:14 FG HOU (3:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. LV 14 – HOU 16
  • Q4 07:44 TD HOU (7:44) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 14 – HOU 22
  • Q4 05:34 TD LV (5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:37) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to HOU 19, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:10) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to LV 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 21 for 4 yards (42-J.Ingram; 35-J.Hansen).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:17) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to HOU 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to LV 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 41 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 30.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:25) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 30 for 18 yards (46-C.Runyon). PENALTY on HOU-42-J.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 39 for 11 yards (42-J.Ingram; 40-A.Brinkman).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 69%

    (9:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:27) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to HOU 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 79%

    (:54) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:25) 6-A.Cole punts 32 yards to HOU 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LV 12, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 15 for 3 yards (31-D.Clark).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:44) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to LV 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:08) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to HOU 47, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (3:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 47%

    (13:46) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to HOU 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-55-C.Lindenberg.