Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 76

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to LV 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 41 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.54 EP
47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model