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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 37

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.95 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP