Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 85

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(1:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 39 for 11 yards (42-J.Ingram; 40-A.Brinkman).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +2.15 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model