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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 78

Houston Texans 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to LV 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model