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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to HOU 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-55-C.Lindenberg.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP