Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(12:10) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to LV 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 21 for 4 yards (42-J.Ingram; 35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.10 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model