BUF @ CLE — 4th & Data

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HC Sean McDermott

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HC Kevin Stefanski

Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy Spread -10.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

BUF

73.0%

CLE

27.0%

💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BUF offense: +0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
CLE offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
QB edge to BUF: Shedeur Sanders (CLE) -0.215 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.209 EPA/dropback
CLE defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24

–

CLE 15

Projected margin: BUF by 9 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Matt Prater K Out Quadricep

Jordan Phillips DT Out Ankle

Chase Lundt T Out Knee

Mecole Hardman WR Questionable Calf

Cam Lewis CB Questionable Hamstring

CLE

Jack Conklin T Out Concussion

Deshaun Watson QB Out Achilles

David Njoku TE Out Knee

Denzel Ward CB Out Calf

Winston Reid LB Out Back

Dylan Sampson RB Out Hand

Wyatt Teller G Questionable Calf

Sam Kamara DT Questionable Elbow

Mike Hall Jr. DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 23

–

CLE 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:47 TD CLE (10:47) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – CLE 6
Q1 07:58 TD BUF (7:58) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – CLE 7
Q2 12:57 TD BUF (12:57) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – CLE 7
Q2 05:41 FG CLE (5:41) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BUF 13 – CLE 10
Q2 02:27 TD BUF (2:27) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – CLE 10
Q3 09:41 FG BUF (9:41) 32-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 23 – CLE 10
Q3 01:39 TD CLE (1:39) 70-Z.Zinter and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 44-H.Fannin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – CLE 16
Q4 08:50 FG CLE (8:50) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BUF 23 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

(5:41) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BUF 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 16-M.Hardman pushed ob at BUF 14 for 4 yards (20-D.Ross).
Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP

p(convert) 63%

(12:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

(9:41) 32-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 33

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 69%

(13:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 14-T.Shavers.
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

(8:50) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 56

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56%

(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 11 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.