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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 32-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model