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New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NYJ
40.7%
NO
59.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Tyler Shough (NO): -0.060 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 21
–
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYJ

Eric Watts DE Out Concussion
Francisco Mauigoa LB Out Neck
Mason Taylor TE Out Neck
Tyrod Taylor QB Questionable Groin
Justin Fields QB Questionable Knee

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Cesar Ruiz G Out Ankle
Asim Richards T Out Ankle
Nathan Shepherd DT Questionable Ankle
Zaire Mitchell-Paden TE Questionable Knee
Mason Tipton WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
NO 29

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 FG NYJ (10:42) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 06:35 FG NO (6:35) 39-C.Smyth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYJ 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 14:23 FG NO (14:23) 39-C.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYJ 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 12:41 FG NYJ (12:41) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 6 – NO 6
  • Q2 01:34 FG NO (1:34) 39-C.Smyth 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYJ 6 – NO 9
  • Q3 00:47 TD NO (:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NO 15
  • Q4 11:14 FG NO (11:14) 39-C.Smyth 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYJ 6 – NO 19
  • Q4 05:22 FG NO (5:22) 39-C.Smyth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYJ 6 – NO 22
  • Q4 02:00 TD NO (2:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NO 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (10:42) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (6:35) 39-C.Smyth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:28) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to NO 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Pettis ran ob at NO 24 for 10 yards (25-J.Monroe). PENALTY on NYJ-43-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (14:23) 39-C.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (12:41) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:55) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 45 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (7:25) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to NO 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill left guard to NO 35 for 2 yards (45-K.King).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (1:34) 39-C.Smyth 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:01) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to NO 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (:03) 39-C.Smyth 61 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to NO 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:12) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to NO 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Pettis to NO 7 for no gain (82-A.Smith).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (11:14) 39-C.Smyth 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 64%

    (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short middle intended for 3-J.Metchie INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sanker at NO 27. 33-J.Sanker pushed ob at NYJ 44 for 29 yards (70-A.Membou).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (5:22) 39-C.Smyth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to NO 42 for 26 yards (21-J.Reid).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 44 for -14 yards (99-C.Young).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 84-S.Smartt pushed ob at NO 48 for 17 yards (28-D.Stutsman).