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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 39

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short middle intended for 3-J.Metchie INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sanker at NO 27. 33-J.Sanker pushed ob at NYJ 44 for 29 yards (70-A.Membou).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.74 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model