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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 39-C.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model