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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 39-C.Smyth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model