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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 68

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 22

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to NO 42 for 26 yards (21-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP