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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 42

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 22

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 44 for -14 yards (99-C.Young).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP