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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 60

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to NO 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model