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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 6 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(5:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill left guard to NO 35 for 2 yards (45-K.King).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.75 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model