Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 62

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 9

(6:12) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to NO 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Pettis to NO 7 for no gain (82-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model