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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 65

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 29

What Actually Happened

(:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 84-S.Smartt pushed ob at NO 48 for 17 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -0.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 23, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model