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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 6 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:55) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 45 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model