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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 11

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP