Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.170 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.061 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- LAC defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LAC offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
LAC
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:25 TD DAL (10:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – DAL 6
- Q1 06:48 TD LAC (6:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – DAL 7
- Q2 14:07 FG DAL (14:07) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. LAC 7 – DAL 10
- Q2 09:50 TD LAC (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – DAL 10
- Q2 08:14 TD DAL (8:14) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – DAL 16
- Q2 00:22 TD LAC (:22) 64-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – DAL 17
- Q3 11:55 FG LAC (11:55) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 24 – DAL 17
- Q4 09:00 FG LAC (9:00) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 27 – DAL 17
- Q4 04:52 TD LAC (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 33 – DAL 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 64%
(11:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to LAC 11 for 28 yards (20-C.Hart). DAL-56-C.Beebe was injured during the play.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(14:07) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 19Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%
(11:55) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(9:10) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to LAC 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 74%
(7:33) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to DAL 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%
(2:18) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (91-D.Hand; 99-J.Caldwell).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(9:00) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Mingo [45-T.Tuipulotu].