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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Mingo [45-T.Tuipulotu].

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model