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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP