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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to LAC 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model