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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Saturday 2025-12-20 · 20:20 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

GB
53.7%
CHI
46.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.239 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

Josh Whyle TE Out Concussion
MarShawn Lloyd RB Out Calf
Collin Oliver LB Out Hamstring
John Williams G Out Back
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Knee
Kingsley Enagbare DE Questionable Illness
Darian Kinnard T Questionable Neck
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Back
Christian Watson WR Questionable Chest
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Ankle
Brenton Cox Jr. DE Questionable Groin
Chris Brooks RB Questionable Chest
Evan Williams S Questionable Knee

CHI

Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Out Hamstring
Rome Odunze WR Out Foot
Luther Burden III WR Out Ankle
Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Groin
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Cole Kmet TE Questionable Ankle
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 16
–
CHI 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:49 FG GB (12:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 01:45 FG GB (1:45) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 6 – CHI 0
  • Q3 12:17 FG CHI (12:17) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 6 – CHI 3
  • Q3 00:39 TD GB (:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-11-J.Reed, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 12 – CHI 3
  • Q4 10:57 FG CHI (10:57) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 13 – CHI 6
  • Q4 05:06 FG GB (5:06) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 16 – CHI 6
  • Q4 02:04 FG CHI (2:04) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 16 – CHI 9
  • Q4 00:28 TD CHI (:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 15
  • Q5 04:57 TD CHI (4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (3:55) Direct snap to 25-K.Monangai. 25-K.Monangai Aborted. 52-D.Dalman FUMBLES at GB 10, recovered by CHI-25-K.Monangai at GB 22.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (12:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 44%

    (9:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to GB 5, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: GB-53-A.Mosby has returned to the game.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at CHI 46 for 13 yards (94-A.Booker).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (1:45) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (12:17) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to GB 36, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-44-N.Sewell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%

    (10:57) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (5:06) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 36%

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end to GB 36 for 12 yards (7-Q.Walker).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 87%

    (2:04) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.