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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at CHI 46 for 13 yards (94-A.Booker).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model