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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 79

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to GB 36, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-44-N.Sewell.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.18 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP