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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 4, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP