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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 25

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model