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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 6

Chicago Bears 9 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model