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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP