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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 50

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model