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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ATL
50.5%
ARI
49.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than ARI
  • QB edge to ARI: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.035 vs Kirk Cousins (ATL) -0.065 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
ARI 23
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ATL

Mike Hughes CB Out Ankle
KhaDarel Hodge WR Out Shoulder
Malik Heath WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Drake London WR Questionable Knee
Brandon Dorlus DT Questionable Illness
James Pearce Jr. LB Questionable Foot

ARI

Evan Brown G Out Not injury related - personal matter
Jalen Thompson S Out Hamstring
Darren Hall CB Out Concussion
Paris Johnson Jr. T Out Knee
Max Melton CB Out Heel
L.J. Collier DE Questionable Knee
Xavier Weaver WR Questionable Hamstring
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Questionable Heel
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Questionable Ankle
Cody Simon LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 26
–
ARI 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:51 FG ARI (12:51) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ATL 0 – ARI 3
  • Q1 07:50 TD ARI (7:50) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-M.Wilson (37-C.Bryant). Arizona challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-M.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – ARI 9
  • Q1 02:22 FG ATL (2:22) 45-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – ARI 10
  • Q2 13:32 FG ARI (13:32) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ATL 3 – ARI 13
  • Q2 12:03 TD ATL (12:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – ARI 13
  • Q2 05:06 FG ARI (5:06) 38-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ATL 10 – ARI 16
  • Q2 00:29 TD ATL (:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – ARI 16
  • Q3 07:29 FG ATL (7:29) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 19 – ARI 16
  • Q4 12:33 TD ATL (12:33) 18-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 25 – ARI 16
  • Q4 04:41 FG ARI (4:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ATL 26 – ARI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 80%

    (12:51) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%

    (10:05) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Burke [97-W.Nolen] at ARI 29. 29-D.Burke ran ob at ARI 45 for 16 yards (63-C.Lindstrom; 71-E.Wilkinson).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (2:22) 45-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 77%

    (13:32) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:06) 38-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 85%

    (2:00) 18-K.Cousins up the middle to ARI 26 for 2 yards (79-P.Mustipher; 50-C.Simon). ** Injury Update: ARI-42-D.Taylor-Demerson has returned to the game.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 71%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ARI 26 for 10 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (7:29) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (3:46) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:55) 39-M.Haack punts 51 yards to ATL 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at ATL 33 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 47%

    (7:25) 18-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 49, RECOVERED by ARI-56-D.Robinson at ARI 47.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (4:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 64%

    (2:14) 69-J.Nelson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 39 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 56-D.Robinson).