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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.00 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP